After at least 3 false starts and two 1 AM bedtimes SpaceX's Starship SN5 prototype finally made its first 150m hop. It really was quite awesome (just see Everyday Astronaut's cam for how he was reacting - I wasn't far off), and just like last year's Starhopper the SN5 flew "in exactly the same way that bricks don't". As the dust cleared we weer all hoping to see it upright - there'd been no bangs - and sure enough, there it stood as proud as punch on the landing site.
I watched Lapadre's Sapphire cam - probably had the best view - legs coming out clearly visible.
Official SpaceX video is here:
I know that Elon was giving it the "new era of spaceflight" speech when they welcomed home "Bob & Doug" from Crew Dragon Demo 2 - but the SN5 fight is far more the beginning of a new era as the complete Starship system promises to open up the inner solar system to us once he cracks in-orbit (or on-planet) refuelling.
It's been a long just-under-a-year since the Starhopper flight and we've seen Mk1 and SN1/2/3/4 all fall by the wayside, but hopefully SN5 and probably SN6 can prove the 150m hop solid (I expect Elon will test to destruction rather than retire SN5), and then it looks like SN8 is being prepped with cone and flaps for the 20km tests some time in the autumn.
It's also still less than 11 months since the Mk1 rollout and its worth revisiting what I thought there in terms of future timeline.
Nov 19 - first flight (10s of km) of Mk1- 3Q20 with SN8This year - 200km flight of Mk1- 1H21 - SN12ish?Mk2 then probably takes over testing, still suborbital, no heat shieldMk3 makes first orbital flight ~ 2Q20- Early 2022? SN15ish?Mk4 joins testing programme- Work starts on the first Super Heavy booster - Looking like 2H20 with HighBay going up
- Work starts on a "production" generation of Starships - 2022?
- Lunar orbital flight
~ 2021 -Late 2022/Early 2023? - Lunar landing
~ 2023 (prob before NASA)- ~2024 (prob as part of NASA Artemis plan) - Unmanned flights to and landing on Mars (and return?) before human landing
[Update: Two other peoples similar predictions - https://mainenginecutoff.com/blog/2020/08/starship-sn5-flew-prediction-check-in]
Of course sending a rocket straight up and down is something Elon's being doing reliably with Falcon for ages now, and Blue Origin has done the same, but the mass of Starship will be on a totally different scale, and with his rocket factory behind him he may well get to the Moon and Mars before NASA does (or with NASA hitching a ride). And I'm still taking bets that the Perseverance sample containers will be plucked off the Martian surface by the gloved hand of a SpaceX astronaut!
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